A clandestine undertaking on behalf of Israel, the Jets and the Jews.

 
Israel's Demographic Problem

Sam Singer of Protocols posts about Israel's demographic problem. Citing Tom Friedman's column in yesterday's Times, Shapiro calls on Israel to unilaterally withdraw from almost all of Judea and Samaria.

Friedman wrote that "by 2010 there will be more Palestinian Arabs than Jews living in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza combined." I'm almost certain that's an exaggeration. Further, I believe that the entire demographic issue has become overhyped. Israel has never annexed Judea, Samaria and Gaza, so the notion that combining the Arab populations in those areas with those in pre-1967 Israel forms the moral basis to argue for one bi-national state seems to me to be off base. Thus, Singer's statement that "Israel will cease to be a Jewish state in our lifetimes. Unless there is unilateral separation from the Palestinians - NOW! TODAY! - there is no way on earth that Israel as we know it can survive," is unnecessarily alarmist.

Nevertheless, the demographic problem is a real one, even if not necessarily an existential one. As a result, most Israelis support giving up the parts of the West Bank with large Arab populations, while annexing the main settlement blocs.

Singer, however, writes that "Unilateral separation does not mean a wall that incorporates 50% of the Palestinians into Israel. It means a contiguous country, on most of the West Bank with all of them over there. That is the minimum level of concession that the right has to get used to at this point."

In fact, if Israel were to retain Ariel, Karnei Shomron and the other communities in Western Samaria, along with Maale Adumim, most of Gush Etzion, the areas just north of Jerusalem such as Givat Ze'ev, other large settlements near Jerusalem such as Beitar Illit and Modin Illit, the area just south of Jerusalem to cover Rachel's Tomb, and the Jordan Valley for a total of perhaps 25 percent of Judea and Samaria, this would not include anything close to 50% of the Palestinians, but somewhere around 200,000 of them. Thus, Israel can achieve unilateral separation while keeping a large chunk of the territories. Indeed, Israel can relieve itself of the large majority of Palestinians even while retaining 50 percent of Judea and Samaria; the idea of keeping 25 percent is not mine, but that of Ehud Barak, who proposes doing just that (the Jordan Valley plus 12-15 percent) in the absence of a peace agreement. Prime Minister Sharon's plan appears to be an interim agreement giving up about 65-70% of Judea and Samaria, with Israel keeping about a third until the Palestinians would be ready to discuss a reasonable final status agreement.

Some may respond that this would not provide the Palestinians with a viable state, but Israel's objective in any unilateral withdrawal would only be to alleviate its demographic problem, not to make political concessions. Indeed, until and unless it is recognized in secure borders, UN Resolutions 242 and 338 do not require Israel to withdraw from any territory. Since a final status peace agreement will not occur anytime soon, Israel can therefore alleviate its demographic situation without withdrawing from almost all of Judea/Samaria. If the Palestinians would be unhappy with only a partial withdrawal, that might motivate them to negotiate a reasonable peace agreement.
posted on 9/15/2003