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Sharon's Plan

Many are already dismissing Sharon's speech yesterday as mere rhetoric. In fact, his plan will dominate the Israeli agenda in 2004.

Sharon clearly intends to dismantle settlements in the coming year. Today's New York Times reported that as many as 22 settlements may be destroyed. Previous reports had indicated that Sharon would dismantle 17 settlements as part of the road map.

The speech was typically devoid of details, and vague. Even as he said that some settlements would be "moved," Sharon spoke of "strengthening" Israel's control over Judea and Samaria areas it intends to retain in its permanent borders.

But if Sharon is going to break the taboo on destroying settlements, then the taboo must also be broken on annexation. Vague terms such as "strengthening" areas Israel wants to keep are not sufficient. It is obvious what "moving" settlements means. Nobody, probably including Sharon, knows what the reference to "strengthening" other settlements means.

Indeed, from the speech, it is not clear whether any territory would be formally annexed, and if not, what steps (if any) would be taken to further Israel's claim to parts of Judea and Samaria. If Sharon were to annex communities such as Maaleh Adumim and Givat Zeev to Jerusalem, tell the evacuated settlers that the country will provide them with housing in those areas, and tell the world that Israel no longer considers the annexed areas to be settlements but parts of Jerusalem - so that Israel will build houses there as it pleases, and build an extended fence that includes Ariel, the other Western Samaria towns and the Jordan Valley, the plan will provide benefits to Israel generally and to the settlement enterprise particularly.

My sense, however, is that Sharon will dismantle settlements, but then back off from the "strengthening." National Union and the National Religious Party are both almost certain to leave the government and be replaced by Labor once settlements are destroyed. Labor and Shinui would oppose any plan to annex parts of Judea and Samaria.

It is likely that Shaton wants to carry out the unilateral plan during an election year, since he knows Bush would not be able to express strong opposition without forfeiting his chance to gain Jewish votes in key swing states. While that makes sense, to implement his plan Sharon will have to stave off fury and strong pressure from his right, his left, and the international community. Sharon's previous actions as Prime Minister suggest that the Right will be left most disappointed.
posted on 12/19/2003