Arafat's Fate
Some have suggested that Israel is better off if Arafat survives his illness, as Israel would likely be faced with U.S. pressure to make concessions to a new PA leader.
I disagree with this thinking. It's not as though Israel hasn't been pressured by the U.S. to make concessions over the last couple of years, even after Arafat was shunned by the Bush Administration. Since refusing to deal with Arafat, Bush pushed the road map on Israel, has insisted on a virtually complete ban on construction in Judea and Samaria, and pushed for the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and part of Samaria.
Israel will be in a better strategic position when Arafat dies. While other PA leaders with involvement in terrorism might be given too much deference - especially in a climate that would likely be sympathetic to Palestinians following the death of their leader - with Arafat gone there would at least be a chance of an eventual end to terrorism. A new PA leader with control over security forces couldn't use the excuse that Arafat isn't letting him take action against terror. Most importantly, with Arafat, Yassin and Rantisi dead, the psychological stench of defeat would hover over Palestinians.
posted on 10/31/2004
