Election
The polls are suggesting that the election can go either way. The popular vote is even in most polls, though Newsweek gives Bush the edge. A number of battleground states are too close to call.
Most who are still undecided likely won't vote, or will vote against the incumbent. The trend in Florida has been negative for Bush; if he loses there, unless he can "steal" Pennsylvania or Michigan, he will be defeated.
On the other hand, voter turnout and organization are essential, and Jeb Bush should give his brother the edge in Florida in that regard.
My gut feeling is that Kerry is going to win. Liberals are more motivated than in the 2000 election, and Nader will be less of a factor than four years ago.
posted on 10/31/2004
