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More on Exit Polls and Jews

Last week, I posted to dispute the exit polls indicating that no more than 25 percent of Jews voted for President Bush.

Further evidence appeared in Sunday's Bergen Record. The Record reports that "election results from Bergen County show a striking change in the voting patterns within Orthodox neighborhoods. In the district near the Englewood synagogue [of Congregation Ahavath Torah], about 45 percent of voters went for Bush, as opposed to 21 percent in 2000. A similar shift occurred in heavily Orthodox neighborhoods in Teaneck, including one where Bush captured 62 percent of the vote after garnering just 14 percent in 2000."

These results surely place into question CNN's exit poll for New Jersey, which claims that only 24 percent of Jews voted for Bush. Even if the Orthodox vote is small, it is larger in New Jersey than nationally, as New Jersey includes large observant communities in Englewood, Teaneck, Lakewood and Passaic.

The actual vote results also disprove a comment to my post last week by Mykroft, who stated that "in the Orthodox continuum from MO to chareidi I'd assume the more chareidi the more likely to vote for Bush." Obviously, Teaneck is not a charedi community (nor is it entirely Orthodox, or Jewish, for that matter), yet Bush captured 62 percent of the vote there.

Another poll countering the exit poll results was an American Jewish Committee election day survey among Russian Jews in Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey. That survey showed the 75 percent of Russian Jews voted for Bush, with most citing Bush's strong leadership qualities as the primary basis for their vote. Russian Jews today represent a not insignificant percentage of the Jewish population in the Northeast, and most are non-Orthodox.
posted on 11/10/2004