Likud's Next MoveAs I predicted last week, Prime Minister Sharon will bolt Likud to set up a new political party. Initial polls indicate that Sharon's party and Labor will be in a close race for first place, with Likud a distant third. If that happens, Sharon's party and Labor would set up the next government.
Likud is currently is disarray. With elections likely to be held in early March, the party does not have a leader.
Likud needs to hold its party primary imminently, within two weeks at most, so that it can elect its leader and candidate for prime minister.
During the short election campaign, Sharon will be attacked both by Labor and by Likud, and his party is likely to fare much worse than the initial polls suggest. Sharon himself is not likely to be effective in debates, and his ex-Likud subordinates like Ehud Olmert are perceived by most Israelis as political opportunists, and are therefore not likely to be assets to the party.
Likud will rally around whomever is elected in its primary and will do better than the early polls suggest. By leaving the party, Sharon allows Likud leaders to take a moderate political stance in favor of territorial compromise for peace, but against unilateral withdrawal.
The right-wing parties will also benefit from Sharon's move. Nationalist Israelis will be motivated to respond to what they see as Sharon's betrayal by doing all they can to vote him out of office and end his political career. Of course, that, and not hateful invective or violence, is the appropriate democratic response to what one sees as objectionable government policy.
posted on 11/20/2005
