The Moment Of Truth For Jerusalem, Judea and SamariaOn Sunday night, Rahm Emanuel told AIPAC's major donors that this is a "moment of truth" for Israel and the Palestinians.
It is clear that the Obama Administration will put heavy pressure on Israel to accept a modified version of the Saudi plan. Reportedly, this plan will call for the UN flag to fly over the Old City.
Binyamin Netanyahu will have to maintain Israel's relationship with the U.S. while trying to secure better borders for Israel than a near complete return to the 1949 armistice lines.
I don't know whether Netanyahu will ultimately succeed, but those at Haaretz who predict that he will quickly renounce all his prior positions will be disappointed.
Unlike Ariel Sharon, who surrounded himself with people whose idea of strategy was ensuring the political success of Ariel Sharon, Netanyahu's inner circle consists, among others, of Uzi Arad, Dore Gold, Ron Dermer and Ari Harow. These are people well aware both of Israel security needs as well as its national and historic rights. Like Netanyahu, they also are pragmatists who understand that Israel's negotiating position has weakened due to the egregious concessions offered by Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert.
My expectation is that Netanyahu will accept parts of the Saudi plan - but will insist on secure and defensible borders for Israel, per UN Resolutions 242 and 338 - and emphasizing Israeli security needs and its rights in Jerusalem, will then do his best to prevent Obama from imposing his own plan on the parties.
posted on 5/06/2009
